Recurring Urges
As noted here many, many times, progressives often have a wildly inaccurate conception of the criminal demographic and of the psychology and motives in play, as expressed by the criminals themselves. A conception so inaccurate, one might call it perverse.
On the subject of prison and its occupants, Inquisitive Bird shares some corrective statistics while poking at one or two common myths:
The median number of prior arrests was nine. More than three quarters have at least 5 prior arrests. Having 30+ prior arrests was more common than having no arrest other than the arrest that led to the prison sentence (i.e., 1 prior arrest)…
As striking as these figures are, they still understate prisoners’ criminal histories. This is because of the dark figure of crime—the amount of unreported, undetected, or undiscovered crime. A highly replicated finding is that criminals self-report having committed many offences for each police contact. That is, they readily admit to having “gotten away with” many offences.
One study of 411 males found that the self-reported number of offences was over 30 times greater than convictions. For sexual offending, studies have estimated the dark figure to be anywhere from 6.5 to 20 times the official figure. In a recent study of American delinquent youths, the self-reported number of delinquent offences was 25 for every police contact.
However large the dark figure of crime exactly is, it is undoubtedly practically significant. Prisoners’ criminal histories are therefore substantially more extensive than their criminal records would suggest.
There’s much more to be had in the linked piece, along with some eyebrow-raising charts.
Unsurprisingly, a similar pattern is found here in the UK:
And then there’s Sweden:
Another notable fact: approximately half of violent crime convictions were committed by people who already had 3 or more violent crime convictions. In other words, if after being convicted of 3 violent crimes people were prevented from further offending, half of violent crime convictions would have been avoided.
In short, before ending up in prison, the vast majority of the perpetrators, the supposedly downtrodden and marginalised, have at least five prior arrests, with almost half having 10 or more, and one in seven, 20 or more:
At which point, the phrase that comes to mind is the nature of the beast. Conceivably, other phrases may occur to readers.
Those with a taste for grim humour are steered towards this rather vivid indication of how a crime rate can improve when just three burglars – with over 200 convictions between them – flee the police in a stolen car before colliding with something solid and ceasing to be.
An illustration, one of many, of how a very large fraction of crime could be prevented by dealing decisively with a surprisingly small number of persistent offenders.
And as commenter Geoff quipped, following this:
Well, indeed.
For those of you with X accounts, Inquisitive Bird can be followed here.
Update, via the comments:
MarkL quotes this,
And adds,
The mismatch of progressive assumptions with the perpetrators’ own stated motives, the way their minds work, is quite something. The idea that carjacking, for instance, is done for reasons of survival, to meet basic needs, and only done in desperation or under duress, because of some supposedly oppressive and racist social system, is darkly funny. Perverse to the point of absurdity.
As illustrated, vividly, in the study linked above – say, by the female carjacker named PoPo, who terrorised a random woman, stole her car, her purse and her wedding ring, then “bought some drink and… weed and… got my hair did.” Because, you know, hair.
Or her fellow carjacker, Little Ty, who, contrary to progressive assumptions, had no need of money – “We don’t need money, we have money” – via means one might guess at – but who simply finds pleasure in violating others. Or the ferals named Loco and Corleone, who boasted that financial security wouldn’t stop them from indulging in carjacking because they just like doing it. Because it’s exciting.
Pretty much by default, the mental process – such as it is – is see it, want it, take it. The fear and degradation of the victim is just icing on the cake. A point expanded on by a carjacker named Tall: “It’s a rush thing… when you’re pulling someone out the car… Just a rush come over me… I mean, I feel good.” And likewise, Big Mix, who found his victims’ terror a “kick,” and indeed “hilarious.” And the aforementioned PoPo, who boasted, “It’s funny just to see them shaking and pissing all over theyself.”
And yet progressives will conjure elaborate explanations, outright fantasies, that bear no relation at all to the motives stated by the criminals themselves. The reality of their nature.
It must be that progressive empathy we hear so much about.
This blog is kept afloat by the tip jar buttons below.
I’m tempted to say band name.
And in anthropological news.
I never have sound on for these things, so the first few seconds of this I was truly wondering if I was looking at some kind of parade float balloon, or an actual person. Then the lips moved.
Album name, the one after the change in line-up.
Otto‘s daughter?
Hair doo-ed. There, fixed.
[ Rummages under bar, emerges with tuba, chiffon scarf. ]
I don’t think you want to pull on that thread too strenuously, lest you discover the voting patterns by demographic at the other end.
Disney is now down 1.5% while the broader market is up 0.5%. A 2% difference. Notice how the left reacts to a guy who was losing his company money losing his job, vs. how the right has reacted to that same company grooming their children, effectively promoting pedophilia and gender dysphoria. Because of course, the right is above engaging in culture wars. They consider themselves better than that. Assuming they even pay attention at all. Thus the right are losers. It’s why we are where we are.
Regarding a few observations that I have seen from the chattering classes on the right on what Charlie Kirk’s murder teaches us…Why did it take Charlie Kirk’s murder to teach “us” anything? These problems with our society have been thick for years. Decades, even. These “smart” people on the right, the thinkers, the managers, the so-called leaders refused to see these problems and even dismissed those of us who tried to point them out. Every attempt made to reference these problems was met with disdain and “you don’t understand…” BS. Charlie didn’t have to die. He didn’t even have to do what he did engaging with students. He rightly should have had a financial career like his mother or become an architect like his father or done any number of productive things a child of such people generally becomes. If every “conservative” so-called, had the guts to speak up over the last 25-30 years, maybe even longer…pretty much Charlie’s entire lifetime…none of this absurd, absolute idiocy would be happening right now.
Regarding the wailing and the gnashing of teeth yesterday, as important as it was, it would never have had to happened if even 10% of the 70K+ people there and the tens of millions watching would have just spoken up. All these “conservatives” still have the power to shut this crap down. Just boycott the NFL. Or pick some other specific target, focus on them and shut them down. This is what the left does. They don’t care if people lose their jobs. An economically silly concern anyway as someone else’s situation will improve. This is why Disney is down today even though they made an actually positive bottom-line decision.
High school football player’s spine fractured when opposing player “pancakes” him.
This advice of John Derbyshire and Scott Adams should be kept in mind.
Doing the jobs Americans won’t do?
‘Potentially dangerous’.
Oooh, and looky-looky here. Jimmy Kimmel is back. Money loser or not. See, stupid, stupid “conservatives”? THIS is how you get immediate results.
the teen suspect accidentally shot himself too, demanded Dziekan [his victim] help him, then ran off.
I know just the sort of help to give him.
Meanwhile, Minnesota carries on the fight to protect criminals from the police.
277,000 phones detected
Those in Minnesota have voted for this, repeatedly, & it would be uncivil not to allow them enjoy it to the fullest.
Too good to keep to myself.
‘Kitties.’
A terminal zoology pedant like me feels compelled to point out that they are not all ‘big cats’ in that video.
Well, exactly. I was speaking about just inside the State Farm Arena. It was amazing that they were able to pull off such a large, high profile, high security threat event in such a short time. If only 10% of those people who went to such effort to show how much they cared about Charlie had made just 10% of the effort that Charlie exercised in actually speaking up and engaging as Charlie did, Charlie would never have had to speak, expose himself and be killed. None of this insanity of the last five years, the brainwashing, the gaslighting would be happening. OK, not “none” none. It would still exist in the margins of a free society, but ykwim.
And I can, in an entirely civil manner, refrain from visiting.
[ Attempts to imagine a tuba in a rock band. ]